As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (LON:AML), who have seen the share price tank a massive 95% over a three year period. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 75% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 44% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results – you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
Given that Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings saw its revenue grow by 5.5% per year, compound. That’s not a very high growth rate considering it doesn’t make profits. Nonetheless, it’s fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 25%, compound, over three years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. We generally don’t try to ‘catch the falling knife’. Of course, revenue growth is nice but generally speaking the lower the profits, the riskier the business – and this business isn’t making steady profits.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We’ve already covered Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ TSR, at -84% is higher than its share price return of -95%. When you consider it hasn’t been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings shareholders are down 75% for the year, falling short of the market return. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 1.5%, likely weighing on the stock. Shareholders have lost 23% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to “buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own”, he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings .
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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