S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Quiet Ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 24.11.22

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 E-mini contract has been rather quiet ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes release late Wednesday, and then of course we have the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Keep in mind that the underlying index will be closed, but there will be somewhat limited electronic trading in the futures markets. The 200-Day EMA sits just above, so unless the FOMC Meeting Minutes has something extraordinarily dovish and it, it’s difficult to imagine that we would see this market truly take off. Even if it does, there’s also the downtrend line just above that could come into the picture as resistance as well.

Underneath, the 3900 level had been previous resistance, and it is now acting as support. If we break down below there then we could slice the 50-Day EMA which would be a very negative turn of events. Despite the trendline above, there is the argument to be made for a little bit of a rally as this time of year, you quite often will see money managers come in and start buying things to push the market higher, as they have to report to customers what they own and whether or not there’s any gains for the year.

With that being said, there is a little bit of herd mentality for the “Santa Claus rally.” It doesn’t necessarily mean that it sticks, and it doesn’t necessarily mean that it has to come, but history tends to favor that type of move. Nonetheless, I do think that ultimately we go lower because there are far too many economic headwinds.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.