Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,760 hurdle as Federal Reserve Minutes highlight ‘pivot’ discussions

  • Gold price grind higher following a rebound from the key support.
  • Federal Reserve Minutes appeared dovish as policymakers discussed softer interest rate hikes, pivot point.
  • Softer United States statistics also weighed on the US Dollar, as well as propelled Gold prices.
  • China-linked market fears, Thanksgiving Holiday can allow XAU/USD to pare recent gains.

Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the recent gains at around $1,750 during Thursday’s Asian session, after posting the biggest daily jump in a fortnight. In doing so, the precious metal struggles for clear directions amid a lack of major data/events, as well as a Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

Gold price cheers softer US Dollar as Federal Reserve Minutes spot ‘pivot’ discussions

Gold price benefited from the softer US Dollar as the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked the biggest daily slump in two weeks as the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials discussed the need of slowing down the interest rate hikes. That said, the Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies refreshed a one-week low following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, defensive near 106.15 at the latest.

In addition to the debate over the softer interest rate hikes, the “sufficiently restrictive” level of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rates also fuelled the US Dollar and favored the Gold price buyers.

United States statistics also fuelled the Gold price advances

Mostly downbeat statistics from the United States also weighed on the US Dollar and favored the Gold price to rise further. The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November eased to 47.6 from 50.0 expected and 50.4 prior whereas the Services PMI also followed the suit while declining to 46.1 compared to 47.9 market forecasts and 47.8 previous readings. Overall, the S&P Global Composite PMI for November dropped to 46.3 versus 47.7 expected and 48.2 prior readouts.

Additionally, the United States Weekly Jobless Claims rose the most since June, to 240K versus 225K expected and 223K prior, which in turn favored the sentiment and drowned the US Dollar while fueling the Gold price.

Alternatively, the US Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.0% in October versus 0.4% marked expectations and downwardly revised 0.3% prior.

Risk catalysts, Thanksgiving Day in United States may test XAU/USD bulls

Be it the market’s cautious optimism due to the expectations of softer interest rates or the downbeat statistics from the United States, not to forget the below-mentioned technical details, the Gold price has more positives to cheer about. However, China’s Covid woes could join the likely inaction on the floor, due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US, to allow the bullion buyers to take a breather. Even so, downbeat prints of the United States Treasury bond yields and firmer closing of Wall Street benchmarks keep Gold buyers hopeful.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold price defends the bounce off a convergence of the 100-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), despite the latest retreat.

That said, bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicators also keep the Gold buyers hopeful of piercing the 200-day EMA hurdle, currently around $1,760.

However, a downwards-sloping resistance line from early July, around $1,778 by the press time, could challenge the Gold price upside.

Alternatively, a convergence of the aforementioned EMAs, around $1,724, restricts the Gold price downside, a break of which could direct the XAU/USD sellers toward the $1,700 threshold.

In a case where Gold price remains bearish past $1,700, July’s low near $1,680 could limit the bullion’s further downside.

Overall, the Gold price remains on the buyer’s radar but further upside appears limited.

Gold price: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected