Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don’t fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
Qualcom – QCOM $123.4 – EGF -12%, -9%, P/E 9.8
Qualcom managed to hold up well during the bear market right up until October when it broke support at $120 falling to within touching distance of $100. A decline that has greatly weakened the outlook for QCOM during 2023, i.e. one can forget about new all time highs this side of 2024. At best Qualcom could break above the $156 high to target $170. The fundamentals are mixed as Qualcom trades on low P/E of 9.8 against which EGF’s are -12% and -9%, so no earnings growth for 2023 thus the stock could remain range bound for most of 2023 within the range of $120 to $155.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
I am 111% invested, I will be seeking to trim on a rally to above $150 and accumulate on declines below $120 which is a good 26%+ spread.
This article is an excerpt form my recent analysis on the current state of the embryonic stocks bull market Stocks Analysis Bonanza – GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in th new year.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem’s forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook’s in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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