Citi Bucks The Bullish Trend, Bets Oil Prices Will Fall

  • The recent OPEC+ production cut announcement sent oil prices soaring and drove many analysts to boost their price forecasts, but Citigroup is bucking that trend.
  • Citigroup’s commodity chief Ed Morse believes oil prices will fall below $80 as China’s slower-than-expected recovery will hurt demand.
  • Morse also pointed to the potential of additional oil output from Venezuela and Iraq, which would undermine the recent OPEC+ cuts.


Citigroup has bucked the bullish oil price forecast trend in analyst circles, expecting oil prices to dip instead of rally further despite OPEC+’s efforts in that direction.

The bank’s commodity chief Ed Morse noted that China’s post-pandemic recovery was progressing more slowly than initially expected and that could affect demand patterns, ultimately hurting prices.


We’re waiting to see what’s really happening with the economy, but it is a slower recovery,” Morse told Bloomberg. “If anything, that will be an end-of-year phenomenon.”

What’s more, Citi believes that traders may be underestimating additional oil output potential in Venezuela and Iraq, which, if it materializes, would offset some of the latest OPEC+ cuts.