Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has had an underwhelming start to 2025, as the AI chip giant grapples with a mix of unfavorable macro developments and company-specific challenges, including the rise of DeepSeek and concerns about sustaining its rapid growth of recent years.
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That makes next week’s GTC conference an opportunity to turn the tide and recapture momentum. But will it deliver? Citi’s Atif Malik, an analyst ranked in the top 1% of Street stock experts, has his doubts.
“Stock specific, risk/reward looks attractive with stock trading below historical P/E trough of 19x and now fully derisking ~28% sales exposure to both China and Singapore on AI diffusion rules per our math. That said, we believe investors are looking for a clearance event on the AI restrictions and tariffs impact to gross margins, which we don’t believe Nvidia is in a position to comment currently,” the 5-star analyst explained.
As for what’s on tap at GTC, Malik is keeping an eye out for several items. He expects Nvidia to officially unveil its Blackwell ‘Ultra’ (B300) chip, along with the GB300. While the B300 will likely stick with a 4NP process, Malik anticipates a much bigger performance leap compared to the B200 – more substantial than the transition from H100 to H200. Given that the GB200 arrived ahead of schedule in Q1, he sees the Ultra chip shaping up to be “more of a 3Q story vs. 4Q.”
Besides the Ultra chip, investors will be eager to learn more about the next-generation Rubin chip. At Computex 2024, the company revealed that the first version of Rubin will arrive in 2026, featuring 8 stacks of HBM4 memory. The GPU will likely be introduced alongside the Vera CPU, NVLink 6 switches (3,600 GB/s), Connect-X 9 cards (1,600 Gb/s), and X1600 InfiniBand and Ethernet switches. “While no further details on the chip or its architecture were provided, we think that given recent management comments, Vera-Rubin will be a strong step up from Grace-Blackwell, particularly on the inference front,” Malik noted.
The analyst expects Nvidia will also briefly discuss its roadmap beyond Rubin, including the Rubin ‘Ultra’ chip, which could introduce a 12-stack HBM architecture. Malik also expects the company will continue on its scaled-up approach and announce the NVL288 (a single-rack system) alongside the Rubin chip.
The final major topic to look out for concerns Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). There’s an ongoing debate about where it will be deployed first – whether in IB/Ethernet switches, NVLink, NVSwitch, or ConnectX. However, its announcement is “widely seen as a given.” While some CPO deployments may happen with Blackwell Ultra, Malik thinks large-scale adoption is more likely with the Rubin chip in 2026.
With all this in mind, Malik remains bullish on Nvidia, assigning the stock a Buy rating with a $163 price target, implying a 41% upside from current levels. (To watch Malik’s track record, click here)
The general Street view is even more optimistic; the average price target stands at $177.41, suggesting investors will pocket returns of 53% a year from now. Rating-wise, based on a mix of 39 Buys and just 3 Holds, the analyst consensus rates NVDA stock a Strong Buy. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
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