Tariff tensions seemingly throttling air travel from Canada — why that might upend the entire US economy

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The tariff tensions between the U.S. and Canada seem to have an unintended effect on traveler sentiment.

Specifically, air travel seems to have drastically decreased between the two countries.

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Trade war tensions between the two countries have been escalating since President Donald Trump initially announced his plans for tariffs on both Canada and Mexico back in February. And the president’s quips about turning Canada into the country’s 51st state certainly haven’t helped ease tensions.

Though it may not be directly linked, a report from flight analytics company OAG aviation projects a steep decline in flights from Canada to the U.S.

Many of these could have been for snowbirds, or those who travel to warmer weather during the winter months. Florida’s tourism industry association estimated that 3.3 million Canadians visited the state in 2024.

As Canadians continue to express disappointment over Trump’s tariffs strategy, some analysts are left wondering how much further will this number might drop this year.

How the current tensions is impacting travel

According to the same OAG report, bookings for flights between the two countries have fallen by 70% from the same time the year before. Airlines have responded to the lower demand by cutting around 320,000 scheduled seats worth of flights between the U.S. and Canada from March to October.

The biggest cuts seem to be during the peak summer months of July and August, with airlines slashing capacity as much as 3.5%.

Reporting from CBS News showed that some Canadian airlines may be cutting out some routes to the U.S. altogether, like the budget airline Flair Airlines. Some routes it cut out in March include Calgary to Las Vegas, Edmonton to Las Vegas, and Toronto to Nashville.

Air Canada has said that flight books between the two countries have fallen by 10%. During an earnings call in February, the airline announced that it will reduce flights to Arizona, Las Vegas and Florida.

Less flight availability could mean that prices may go up for certain routes. Alternatively, you could see discounts thanks to reduced demand from Canadians.

When local Buffalo news outlet WKBW spoke with Michael and Carol Gilgunn on their journey back from Sarasota, they mentioned that many of their Canadian friends were nervous about visiting the U.S.

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They’ve been traveling to Florida over the last 15 years and told the news outlet this is the first they’ve noticed Canadians outright refusing to travel over the U.S.-Canada political climate.

For now, the airlines may be nervous about how fewer snowbirds or other travelers could impact travel moving forward.

How this trend can affect US businesses

Considering Canadian tourists are the one of the top spenders in the U.S., fewer of them spending those tourism dollars in the U.S. could have a massive impact on the economy.

A press release from the U.S. Travel Association, shared that 20.4 million Canadians visited the U.S. in 2024, helping to support 140,000 American jobs and generated $20.5 billion in spending.

Fewer tourists could be a drastic drop in revenue and could lead to job losses. Businesses that might be affected include those in food and beverage, transportation and hotel industries. Other retailers like clothing stores and tour operators may also see a drop, since tourists may purchase items to bring home with them.

Afar reports that data from the National Tour Association (NTA) shows a 10% cut in travelers from Canada could translate into 2 million fewer visits, 14,000 job losses and $2.1 billion in lost spending. A March NTA survey survey of its U.S. members found that 53% already said that they’d lost bookings, business or visits from Canada.

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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.