Despite Tariffs, S&P 500 Earnings Could Surprise. These Factors Will Tell.

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The WSJ Dollar Index is down more than 7% this year, which also affects profits. Historically, for every 10% change in the dollar, S&P 500 earnings have an opposite move of 2.5%. The dollar’s decline in the second quarter should mean a 0.5% boost to EPS growth. The dollar’s impact should already be mostly reflected in consensus estimates, UBS says.