Invest 92L in the Atlantic has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week, and some forecasters said it could become a tropical storm or even a hurricane.
If maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, it would become Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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As of Monday, Sept. 15, a dip in the jet stream could send any developing storm north into the Atlantic, keeping it away from Florida and the U.S.
Here’s what you should know.
Spaghetti models for Invest 92L. See expected path
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
National Hurricane Center: Invest 92L likely to become tropical depression or tropical storm this week
A broad area of low pressure — which the Hurricane Center refers to as AL92 — has formed roughly midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.
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This system has become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development.
A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
What can Florida expect from Invest 92L? Will it become a hurricane or Tropical Storm Gabrielle?
“This disturbance — now designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center — is very likely to organize into Tropical Storm Gabrielle sometime during the middle or latter part of this work week, and it will likely continue to intensify into a hurricane,” according to Fox Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver via email Sept. 15.
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“Forecast models are pretty convinced that this storm will make a turn to the north long before the Caribbean Islands, but some impacts can’t be totally ruled out at this point. Forecasts for storms that haven’t developed yet (like this one) are subject to a little more uncertainty so it’s smart to watch. Otherwise, folks in Bermuda most certainly need to keep an eye on this over the next week,” Oliver said.
“This wave could become the next tropical depression or even the next named tropical storm in the Atlantic,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
There was agreement between AccuWeather and Fox Weather on environmental conditions probably keeping the system off the U.S.
“If this wave develops into a storm, the steering winds would likely allow the storm to track mainly north of the Caribbean and away from the U.S.,” DaSilva said.
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Invest 92L spaghetti models. Will it become hurricane, tropical storm?