By
Joel South
Sep 17, 2025 | Updated 5:16 PM ET
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Key Points
- Earnings to be announced shortly after the market closes today with a conference call at 5:30 pm EST.
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Q2 earnings expect $55.75M revenue, -$0.05 EPS; FY2025 targets $239.75M revenue, $3.12 EPS, with EU expansion and cost control in focus.
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Bullish stock dropped 22% since its $37 IPO, despite ARK Invest buying 161,000 shares, amid a tech/crypto market pullback.
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My Reaction
| Metric | Pre Q2 Consensus | Post Q2 Guide | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Adjusted Revenue | ~$60M | $69–76M | Bullish |
| Q3 Adjusted EBITDA | ~$12M | $25–28M | Bullish |
| FY25 EPS | –$0.05 | Path to positive in Q3 | Bullish |
Sentiment Summary:
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Bullish: Q3 guidance implying profitability, BitLicense catalyst.
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Bearish: Spread compression, adjusted losses in Q2.
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Neutral: Trading volumes guidance lower sequentially.
Guidance Update (Q3 2025)
| Metric | Q3 Guide | Q2 Actual | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Revenue | $69–76M | $57M | 📈 Higher |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $25–28M | $8M | 📈 Higher |
| Adjusted Net Income | $12–17M | –$6M | 📈 Positive turn |
| Trading Volume | $133–142B | $180B | 📉 Lower |
Key Operating Highlights
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Subscription, Services & Other revenue grew 61% QoQ, now $32.9M.
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CoinDesk Indices AUM hit $41B, up $9B QoQ.
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Signed multi-year, multi-product partnerships including with Igloo Inc. (Pudgy Penguins), showcasing cross-sell traction.
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Options trading platform entering limited client rollout, with full launch in Q4.
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Secured NYDFS BitLicense, joining a select group with global regulatory approvals.
CEO Commentary
CEO Tom Farley:
“We saw exciting liquidity services growth, executed a successful Consensus conference, and laid the foundation for a strong IPO. Our BitLicense approval underscores Bullish’s institutional rigor and global reach.”
CFO David Bonanno:
“Our first public quarter demonstrates the resilience of our model and importance of diversification. We look forward to updating shareholders on continued progress.”
Revenue Beat and EPS In-Line
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Revenue | $57.0M | $55.8M | ✅ Beat |
| Adjusted EPS (Net Income) | –$6.0M adj. loss (~–$0.05) | –$0.05 | ✅ In line |
| GAAP Net Income | $108.3M ($0.93/share) | N/A | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $8.1M | est. ~$10M | ❌ Miss |
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Trading volumes reached $179.6B, up 35% YoY, with average daily volumes of nearly $2B.
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Spreads compressed to 1.3bps vs. 2.6bps last year, a sign of growing liquidity but also margin pressure.
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GAAP profitability was helped by favorable fair value items, while adjusted metrics showed losses.
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Guidance (Q3 2025): Adjusted revenue of $69–76M and Adjusted EBITDA of $25–28M — signaling a sharp sequential profitability ramp.
Stock up 2.8%
Still no numbers but a spike in trading volume, 27,650 shares took place at 4;24 PM EST and move the after-hours price higher.
Still waiting but will post here as soon as we see any material numbers
Some small movements after-hours
The big news today that sent shares up over 6% was the company secured both a New York BitLicense and a Money Transmission License from the NYDFS, allowing it to launch U.S. spot trading and custody services for institutional and advanced traders.
CEO Tom Farley (ex-NYSE President) framed this as a major credibility milestone, underscoring Bullish’s commitment to compliance and its intent to become part of New York’s financial ecosystem.
So far the stock is down 0.88% after-hours as we wait for more info.
Analyst Rating on Bullish
Median price target is $55.50 which is 3% upside from today’s price.
- Buy: 11 analysts
- Strong Buy: 4 analysts
- Hold: 7 analysts
- Underperform: 0 analysts
- Sell: 0 analysts
This results in a consensus recommendation score of 2.27 (on a scale where 1 = Strong Buy, 2 = Buy, 3 = Hold, 4 = Underperform, 5 = Sell), indicating a generally bullish outlook with a slight lean toward “Buy.”
Bullish’s public debut was a blockbuster: The company priced 30 million shares at $37 on August 28, 2025, raising significant capital for expansion. However, shares have since cooled, down approximately 18 straight trading days from late August peaks, despite analyst upgrades and strong Q1 results. This pullback aligns with broader market rotation away from high-growth tech and crypto names, but recent catalysts like Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest adding 161,000 shares yesterday signal renewed conviction.
Estimates Outlook
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Revenue: $55.75 million
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EPS (Normalized): -$0.05
And full-year estimates currently stand at:
Keys To Watch
- Revenue Performance: Will Bullish exceed the $55.75 million Q2 revenue estimate, or fall short due to crypto market volatility? A beat could signal strong trading volume growth.
- EPS Outcome: Can Bullish achieve or surpass the -$0.05 normalized EPS forecast?
- EU Expansion Impact: Updates on the MiCAR license rollout and new assets under management could drive upside if Bullish capitalizes on EU market access.
- Guidance for FY2025: Management’s outlook on hitting $239.75 million in revenue and $3.12 EPS will shape investor confidence for the full year.
- Cost Management: Insights into expense control post-IPO will be critical, especially if EPS trends toward the lower end of expectations.