Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price has retreated 6.4% in the past week. The company warned of a sharp drop in fourth-quarter deliveries, and a major supplier contract restatement hinted at declining demand for the Cybertruck. The stock is still 43.1% higher than six months ago, outperforming the S&P 500 in that time.
However, Tesla stock is only 8.9% higher than a year ago, underperforming the Nasdaq. Yet, plenty of investors are still drawn to the EV market leader, which experienced a meteoric rise that has resulted in a gain of 28,500% since the company’s initial public offering on June 29, 2010. It debuted at $17 per share, or roughly $1 per share when adjusted for stock splits.
Regardless, investors are more concerned with the stock’s future performance over the next one, five, and 10 years. While most Wall Street analysts will calculate 12-month forward projections, it is clear that nobody has a consistent crystal ball, and plenty of unforeseen circumstances can render even near-term projections irrelevant. 24/7 Wall St. aims to present some farther-looking insights based on Tesla’s own numbers, along with business and market development information that may be of help to our readers’ own research.
Tesla’s Recent Success
Tesla has managed to thrive, boosting earnings and revenue even in high-interest-rate environments. Tesla’s Model S was the best-selling plug-in electric car in both 2015 and 2016. The mass-market Model 3 sedan followed, becoming the best-selling electric car from 2018 to 2021. The Model Y, a mass-market SUV version of the Model 3, debuted in 2019, with deliveries beginning in 2020. Since then, Tesla stock has experienced incredible growth.
Along with Tesla’s energy storage business and its charging station network, the company saw its revenues grow.
| Fiscal Year | Price | Revenues | Net Income |
| 2015 | $16.00 | $4.046 B | −$888.7 M |
| 2016 | $14.25 | $7.000 B | −$674.9 M |
| 2017 | $21.60 | $11.759 B | −$1.962 B |
| 2018 | $21.18 | $21.461 B | −$976 M |
| 2019 | $29.53 | $24.578 B | −$862 M |
| 2020 | $235.23 | $31.536 B | $721 M |
| 2021 | $352.26 | $53.823 B | $5.519 B |
| 2022 | $123.18 | $81.462 B | $12.556 B |
| 2023 | $248.48 | $96.773 B | $14.997 B |
| 2024 | $403.84 | $97.690 B | $7.13 B |
Key Drivers for Tesla’s Performance
Improved Margins: Tesla’s management has been cutting manufacturing costs and expanding margins, resulting in strong revenue and net income gains since 2020. Its gigafactories in Shanghai, China, and Berlin, Germany, should help Tesla reduce export-related red tape and tariffs for upcoming EVs, resulting in lower overseas prices and increased sales. And Tesla has begun hiring for its new “megafactory” near Houston.
R&D Paying Off: Thanks to its FSD and robotaxi R&D, Tesla is leading, well ahead of GM’s Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo. Chinese companies like Apollo Go and WeRide are viewed as better-equipped robotaxi competitors in a field that may soon grow rapidly. Musk said Tesla plans to have 500 robotaxis in Austin and 1,000 in Silicon Valley by year-end.
Diversified Business Segments: Tesla’s Supercharger, energy, and battery businesses have grown rapidly, further distinguishing it from its EV peers as a company with many more technological initiatives. Musk recently announced plans for a large Optimus robot production line in Fremont, California.
Tesla Stock Forecast Through 2030
Wall Street’s consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $399.15 per share, but that is 12.2% lower than the most recent closing price. Yet, Baird, Canaccord Genuity, and Deutsche Bank have recently maintained Buy-equivalent ratings, citing 2026 catalysts and the long-term outlook. Wedbush has the street-high $600 price target on the stock.
24/7 Wall St.’s year-end 2026 price target for Tesla is $461.73, which suggests marginal upside potential in the next 12 months. Our forecast through the end of the decade is based on the company seeing projected revenue growth climb from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, alongside normalized EPS growth of $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 in 2030. Here’s how things may shake out:
| Year | Normalized EPS | Projected Revenue | Projected Stock Price | Potential Upside |
| 2026 | $2.98 | $133.938 B | $461.73 | 1.6% |
| 2027 | $3.84 | $155.708 B | $556.71 | 22.5% |
| 2028 | $5.76 | $193.500 B | $837.58 | 84.3% |
| 2029 | $8.60 | $248.572 B | $980.46 | 115.8% |
| 2030 | $11.24 | $297.430 B | $1,116.86 | 145.8% |
Tesla Bull, Base, and Bear Stock Price Prediction and Forecast