The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is now underway and investors are closely monitoring the oil and energy sector, which continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and significant volatility in commodity prices. While the sector as a whole faces a range of challenges, a select few energy companies appear well-positioned to exceed earnings expectations. By capitalizing on their strategic strengths, these companies could deliver positive earnings surprises, potentially leading to a near-term boost in their stock prices and offering opportunities for investors despite broader market headwinds.
With insights from our exclusive research and market analysis, we highlight four stocks — Imperial Oil Limited IMO, ExxonMobil Corporation XOM, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN and Helmerich & Payne, Inc. HP — to take advantage of the positive post-announcement price reaction.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude declined sharply in fourth-quarter 2025, averaging $59.64 per barrel compared with $70.69 the prior year, primarily due to a persistent global oversupply that outpaced sluggish demand growth. OPEC+ nations progressively unwound voluntary production cuts starting in September, boosting output alongside steady non-OPEC supply from U.S. shale, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, which led to inventory builds of up to 2 million barrels per day.
Weakening demand stemmed from slower economic activity in China and Europe, accelerated EV adoption, energy efficiency improvements and emerging trade tariff uncertainties under the Trump Administration.
Regarding natural gas prices, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.75 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase from the prior year’s $2.44. This uptick was fueled by colder-than-average winter weather, which spiked heating demand across North America, robust LNG export volumes to Europe and Asia amid global energy needs, and surging consumption from power-hungry data centers supporting AI growth, despite some mid-year production softness.
Given the plenty of energy companies, it can be challenging for investors to identify stocks that are poised to surpass earnings expectations. While it’s impossible for common people to predict with 100% certainty, our unique method makes this easier.
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of an earnings beat is as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP is our exclusive proprietary tool designed to identify stocks with the highest potential to outperform. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Imperial Oil is gearing up to report its earnings on Jan. 30 before the market opens and there’s plenty of reason for optimism surrounding this Canadian energy giant. With a history deeply intertwined with the development of Canada’s vast oil sands, Imperial Oil stands as one of the country’s most respected integrated oil and gas companies. The company’s operations span exploration and production to refining and retailing, positioning it as a key player in the energy sector.
Imperial Oil is expected to deliver earnings of $1.40 per share, indicating a 17.16% decrease from the prior-year figure. However, with an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank #3, Imperial Oil has demonstrated a remarkable ability to beat expectations, exceeding estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 13.25%. This consistency makes IMO a compelling choice for investors seeking stability and growth in a sometimes-volatile industry.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Imperial Oil Limited price-eps-surprise | Imperial Oil Limited Quote
Next, we turn to ExxonMobil, which is also set to release its earnings on Jan. 30, before the bell rings. ExxonMobil is arguably the most iconic name in the oil and gas industry, with a global reach that spans continents and operations in nearly every corner of the energy sector. From drilling oil in the deepest waters to creating cutting-edge technologies that support its renewable energy initiatives, ExxonMobil has always been at the forefront of the industry’s evolution.
For the upcoming quarter, analysts are expecting XOM to report earnings of $1.64 per share, implying a modest decline of 1.8% from the prior-year figure. Despite these challenges, ExxonMobil’s ability to outperform is well-established, with an impressive average earnings surprise of 5.71%. Armed with an Earnings ESP of +2.29% and a Zacks Rank #3, we are hopeful ExxonMobil will continue its strong track record of earnings beats.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote
Patterson-UTI Energy, a Houston-based oil and gas drilling services company, will report its earnings on Feb. 4, after the market closes. The company is a key player in the North American energy landscape, providing essential drilling and pressure-pumping services that help energy companies tap into new reserves and optimize existing wells. With an Earnings ESP of +19.15% and a Zacks Rank #3, Patterson-UTI is primed for a potential earnings beat. The consensus estimate for its earnings is 12 cents per share, which is flat compared with the prior-year performance.
Though Patterson-UTI has had a mixed track record, with two earnings beats and two misses over the past four quarters, it has nonetheless managed to deliver a notable average surprise of 17.5%. Given the company’s solid position in the drilling sector and its ability to adapt to market conditions, PTEN remains one to watch.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Quote
Finally, Helmerich & Payne, another drilling services titan, is set to release its earnings on Feb. 4, after the market closes. Based in Spring, TX, Helmerich & Payne is renowned for its state-of-the-art drilling rigs and commitment to technological innovation in the oil and gas drilling space. As energy companies increasingly turn to more efficient drilling methods to maximize production, HP’s modern fleet of rigs has made it a crucial player in North America’s oil exploration efforts.
For the upcoming quarter, we expect HP to report earnings of 51 cents per share, indicating a 15% drop from the prior-year figure. However, with an Earnings ESP of +14.85% and a Zacks Rank #3, the company is still expected to beat expectations, continuing its trend of positive earnings surprises. Over the last four quarters, HP’s earnings have surpassed expectations twice and met them twice, delivering an average surprise of 10.95%. For investors keeping a close eye on the oil and gas drilling sector, HP remains an important company to follow.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Quote
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).