Four high-profile tech stocks have shed between 23% and 37% of their value so far in 2026, even as the Nasdaq 100 sits nearly flat on the year. Wall Street’s analyst community hasn’t followed the market lower, and the gap between where these stocks trade and where analysts think they belong has grown wide enough to demand attention. Whether that gap represents a genuine opportunity or a warning signal depends on what drove each selloff and how durable the underlying businesses really are.
The four names: The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD), Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), and AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP). Each has a different story, but a common thread runs through them all. Strong fundamentals, aggressive analyst price targets, and stock prices that have moved sharply in the wrong direction.
Trade Desk: A 37% Drop With No Earnings Miss to Explain It
The Trade Desk is down 37% year-to-date, trading at $23.95 as of February 26. The analyst consensus price target sits at $36.73, implying upside of over 53% from current levels. That’s a notable gap. Wall Street sees plenty of room to run.
What makes this striking is that the selloff has no obvious earnings catalyst. In Q4 2025, Trade Desk reported revenue of $847 million, up 14% year-over-year, beating the consensus estimate of $841 million. Operating income grew 11% year-over-year to $157 million, and the company issued Q1 guidance of at least $678 million in revenue with approximately $195 million in adjusted EBITDA. Customer retention remained above 95%.
The decline appears to be a combination of sector-wide multiple compression in ad tech and broader risk-off sentiment in high-growth names. The stock is now 67% below its level from one year ago and sitting near its 52-week low of $21.08. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and three rate it Sell or Strong Sell. That’s a meaningfully bullish skew for a stock in freefall. Reddit sentiment shifted from very bearish in early February to bullish by mid-February, but swinging back after the recent report.
Oracle’s Cloud Momentum Meets a 23% YTD Slide
Oracle is down 23% year-to-date, with shares at $150.31. The analyst consensus target of $269.94 implies upside of roughly 80% from here. The analyst community is overwhelmingly bullish: 32 of 43 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with just one Sell and no Strong Sells.
The selloff has been steep. Oracle’s stock hit a 52-week high of $345.72 before sliding to its current level, a drop of more than 56% from that peak. The stock now trades well below both its 50-day moving average of $175.78 and its 200-day moving average of $220.69. Recent Reddit discussion has turned mixed-to-bearish, with posts referencing concerns about Oracle’s bond quality and a reported setback in a large data center financing deal.
The bull case rests on Oracle’s cloud infrastructure buildout, which has been the company’s primary growth engine. The company carries quarterly earnings growth of 91% year-over-year and revenue growth of 14% year-over-year on a trailing basis, with a 32% operating margin. Insider ownership stands at 41%, which is unusually high for a company of this size and signals that management has significant skin in the game. The forward P/E of 42x reflects expectations for continued growth acceleration, particularly in AI-driven cloud infrastructure demand.
The bear case is real. The most recent detailed earnings data available from Oracle’s fiscal year is from 2023, limiting visibility into recent quarterly trends. Reports of debt concerns and financing difficulties, if accurate, could complicate the capital-intensive AI infrastructure buildout that underpins the analyst thesis. A company betting heavily on data center expansion needs access to patient, cheap capital.
ServiceNow: AI Platform Credibility, Steep Discount From Highs
ServiceNow has dropped 29% year-to-date, with shares at $109.30. The analyst consensus target of $190.50 implies upside of roughly 74%. Of 44 analysts covering ServiceNow, 40 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, with just three Holds and one Sell. That’s one of the strongest consensus ratings in enterprise software.
Like Trade Desk, ServiceNow’s selloff is hard to reconcile with the actual financial results. In Q3 2025, the company posted revenue of $3.41 billion, up 22% year-over-year, beating consensus of $3.39 billion. Free cash flow grew 26% year-over-year to $592 million in the quarter. The company raised its full-year guidance across subscription revenue, operating margin, and free cash flow. CEO Bill McDermott personally purchased $20 million in stock, a signal that carries weight when a company is being sold off by the broader market.
The stock is now 42% below its level from one year ago and near its 52-week low of $98. The AI angle is central to the analyst thesis. ServiceNow has positioned its platform explicitly as an enterprise AI workflow layer, with strategic partnerships with Nvidia and AWS and the launch of its AI Control Tower product. The board also authorized a 5-for-1 stock split, which occurred in mid-December and broadened retail accessibility. At a trailing P/E of 64x, the stock is not cheap in absolute terms, but the growth profile and cash generation argue that the compression may have gone too far.
AppLovin: Best Fundamentals, Biggest Disconnect
AppLovin presents the most striking case of the four. The company just reported its strongest quarter ever, yet the stock has fallen 34% year-to-date to $444.93. The analyst consensus target of $661.59 implies upside of roughly 49%. With 25 of 28 analysts rating it Buy or Strong Buy, conviction is high.
The Q4 2025 numbers are exceptional by any measure. AppLovin reported revenue of $1.66 billion, up 66% year-over-year, beating the consensus estimate of $1.62 billion. Net income came in at $1.10 billion, up 84% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 84%. For the full year 2025, the company generated $3.95 billion in free cash flow and deployed $2.58 billion in share buybacks. Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.745 to $1.775 billion with adjusted EBITDA margins maintained at 84%.
The stock was at $597 when Q3 results were filed in November and fell to $471.80 by the time Q4 results were filed on February 10, a 21% decline despite beating estimates in both quarters. The selloff appears driven by valuation concerns, a breach of contract report that surfaced in recent Reddit discussion, and broader rotation out of high-multiple names. The stock’s beta of 2.49 means it amplifies market moves in both directions, and the YTD decline in a nearly flat Nasdaq reflects sentiment-driven selling rather than fundamental deterioration.
Where Things Stand Across All Four
| Stock | Current Price | Analyst Target | Implied Upside | YTD Performance | Analyst Buy % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | $23.95 | $36.73 | ~53% | -37% | 53% |
| ORCL | $150.31 | $269.94 | ~80% | -23% | 73% |
| NOW | $109.30 | $190.50 | ~74% | -29% | 91% |
| APP | $444.93 | $661.59 | ~49% | -34% | 86% |
For context, the Nasdaq 100 is down just 0.7% year-to-date. All four of these stocks have dramatically underperformed the broader tech index, which makes the analyst consensus targets look either like a contrarian opportunity or a case of slow-moving price target revisions that haven’t yet caught up to a new reality.
Analyst price targets are not guarantees. They represent a point-in-time estimate based on models that can be wrong, and targets often lag major price dislocations by weeks or months. That said, when 73% to 91% of analysts covering a stock rate it a buy and the stock is trading 50% to 80% below their targets, the burden of proof shifts to explaining why the market is right and the analysts are wrong.