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United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) has been under significant pressure lately. Shares are down 6.20% over the past week, down 21% over the past month and down nearly 24% year-to-date as of March 12. That puts the stock well below its 52-week high of $119.21.
Most analysts maintain moderate near-term caution given the fuel cost environment, but Jefferies is holding firm with a Buy rating and a $125 price target, implying meaningful upside from current levels. That compares to the broader Street consensus target of $138.56. But can UAL realistically reach $125 by the end of 2026?
Jefferies’ $125 UAL Prediction
Jefferies lowered its target from $148 to $125 after raising Q1 fuel cost estimates by about 14% and Q2 estimates by about 30% following a roughly 50% spike in jet fuel prices from the January average. The key to the bull case: Jefferies currently assumes second-half fuel prices revert toward pre-conflict levels, which would allow United’s earnings power to reassert itself. With FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $12.00 to $14.00, the valuation math remains compelling at a forward P/E of roughly 7x.
Key Drivers of UAL Stock Performance
- Fuel cost normalization in H2 2026: Jefferies’ thesis hinges on oil prices retreating as geopolitical pressures ease. WTI crude was $64.51/bbl in February 2026, well below the $75.74/bbl seen in January 2025 and far below 2022 peaks above $114/bbl. A return toward late-2025 levels would directly expand margins and compound earnings for long-term holders.
- Premium and loyalty revenue momentum: Premium revenue grew 11% and loyalty revenue grew 9% in full-year 2025, both outpacing overall revenue growth of 3.52%. These high-margin streams are structurally less sensitive to fuel volatility.
- Fleet expansion and network investment: United plans over 100 narrowbody and approximately 20 Boeing 787 widebody deliveries in 2026, along with new international routes and major hub upgrades. These investments build long-term earnings capacity.
What Will It Take for UAL to Reach $125?
With approximately 323.4 million shares outstanding, a $125 price target implies significant upside potential. Three conditions are required: fuel prices must stabilize and retreat in the second half of 2026; United must execute on its $12.00 to $14.00 EPS guidance range; and investor sentiment toward airlines must recover as near-term macro fears fade.
The primary risk is clear: United does not hedge fuel costs, leaving it fully exposed to the roughly 58% jet fuel spike that has already pressured Q1 2026 results. That said, with a trailing P/E near 9x, record 2025 revenue of $59.07 billion, and a proven premium strategy, Jefferies’ conviction that this selloff is a temporary headwind rather than a structural break remains a credible analytical case.