Wall Street Raises ONEOK Price Target to $100

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Quick Read

• ONEOK received an Overweight upgrade from Wells Fargo with a $100 price target (from $81), while Jefferies upgraded the midstream operator to Buy with a $98 target, both citing structural demand shifts from Iran-related geopolitical disruptions that will accelerate Permian gas and natural gas liquids supply growth through ONEOK’s infrastructure.

• Iranian strikes on Qatari LNG facilities are redirecting global energy demand toward U.S. supply chains that ONEOK serves, with crude already trading well above the company’s conservative $55-$60 per barrel guidance assumption and natural gas prices remaining elevated.

Wells Fargo upgraded ONEOK (NYSE:OKE) to Overweight from Equal Weight on Wednesday, raising its price target to $100 from $81. The firm’s thesis centers on the Iran war creating a structural shift in global energy demand that will accelerate Permian gas and natural gas liquids supply growth, directly benefiting ONEOK’s midstream network. With shares trading at $90.94, the new target implies meaningful upside from current levels.

The Analyst’s Case

Wells Fargo argues the Iran war will produce a durable, structural shift in global energy flows, with U.S. midstream infrastructure positioned as a primary beneficiary. The firm expects Permian gas and NGL supply to accelerate to meet growing demand, and believes ONEOK will exceed its 2026 guidance and 2027 consensus estimates through spread-based opportunities related to the Iran war. This upgrade was part of a broader call covering three midstream names, all citing the same structural thesis.

Jefferies made a similar move days earlier, upgrading ONEOK to Buy with a $98 target on March 20, citing heightened crude risk premium and specific opportunities in butane blending, location spreads, and Bakken leverage. The geopolitical backdrop is concrete: Iranian strikes on Qatari LNG facilities have significantly increased natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, redirecting demand toward U.S. supply chains that ONEOK’s infrastructure serves.

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Why the Move Matters Now

ONEOK’s approximately 90% fee-based earnings structure provides a stable base, and the Iran war thesis adds a commodity-driven upside layer beyond what the fee model captures. WTI crude has already surged well above ONEOK’s conservative 2026 guidance assumption of $55 to $60 per barrel, with WTI reaching $91.85 as of March 13. Meanwhile, natural gas spiked to $13.80 per MMBtu in late January 2026, the highest level since 2008, before normalizing.

The stock has already gained 25.49% year-to-date, but Wells Fargo’s $100 target still sits above the current Street consensus of $87.53 to$87.75. ONEOK trades at a trailing PE of 17x with a 56-year history of consecutive dividend payments and a recently raised quarterly dividend of $1.07 per share ($4.28 annualized).

What to Watch

ONEOK’s Eiger Express Pipeline expansion to 3.7 Bcf/d, fully subscribed under long-term contracts, and the Bighorn processing plant targeting mid-2027 completion are the key organic growth catalysts. Investors should monitor whether elevated commodity prices hold and whether Iran-related LNG supply disruptions persist, as those two factors underpin the entire Wells Fargo upgrade thesis. The company’s own guidance conservatism, built on $55–$60 WTI, leaves room for upside surprises if current energy market conditions continue.

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