After several years of overwhelming optimism, the tide may be turning on the economy. Recession fears are growing, with around 42% of Americans fearing an “economic collapse” within the next 10 years, according to a March 2026 YouGov poll.
To be clear, there’s no way to know for certain what the market or economy will do in the near term. But it doesn’t hurt to prepare your investment portfolio anyway, and there are three ultrareliable Vanguard ETFs to stock up on if we’re headed toward a recession.
1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI +1.20%) aims to capture a snapshot of the entire U.S. equities market in a single investment. It holds just over 3,500 stocks from all corners of the market — ranging from up-and-coming small-cap stocks to megacap industry giants and everything in between.
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Today’s Change
(1.20%) $3.85
Current Price
$324.19
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$323.47 – $327.85
52wk Range
$236.42 – $344.42
Volume
3.5K
Increased diversification can help mitigate risk during a recession. The more stocks you own, in general, the less likely it is that a single company or industry will tank your portfolio. Even if an entire sector of the market collapses, it won’t hit you quite as hard when you’re investing in a fund with thousands of stocks.
Historically, the market itself has recovered from every single recession it’s ever faced. While past performance doesn’t predict future returns, it is highly likely that the Total Stock Market ETF will also rebound from future downturns.
2. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +1.08%) mirrors the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC +1.15%), holding stocks from 500 of the largest U.S. companies. While it’s much narrower than the Total Stock Market ETF, with just a fraction of the previous fund’s holdings, its key advantage is that it only contains large-cap stocks.
Larger companies tend to be more stable and established than smaller corporations, giving them a leg up during periods of volatility. The companies within the S&P 500, specifically, are the largest and strongest in the U.S., making them more likely to pull through a recession.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Today’s Change
(1.08%) $6.49
Current Price
$604.43
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$603.06 – $611.02
52wk Range
$442.80 – $641.81
Volume
56K
This doesn’t mean the fund is immune to volatility, especially given that the tech sector makes up a significant portion of the S&P 500. However, this type of investment tends to thrive over time.
Statistically, the longer you hold this investment, the lower your chances of losing money. By holding an S&P 500 ETF for just one year, there’s a roughly 33% chance of earning negative total returns, according to research from investment firm Capital Group. Over the past 82 years, however, there’s never been a 10-year period in which the S&P 500 posted negative total returns.
3. Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Dividend ETFs, like the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM +1.04%) can help investors build a source of passive income in addition to investment gains.
Dividend stocks are those that pay shareholders a portion of their profits. While each dividend payment is typically small, the more shares you own, the more you’ll receive. By reinvesting those dividends to buy more shares, it can create a snowball effect over time.
Passive income is particularly important to many investors during economic downturns. If you lose your job or experience other financial difficulties, having some passive income in the form of dividends can go a long way.
Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
Today’s Change
(1.04%) $1.51
Current Price
$146.68
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$146.38 – $148.09
52wk Range
$112.05 – $157.29
Volume
532
The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF pays dividends quarterly, and its most recently distribution was around $0.86 per share. Again, that may not sound like much on the surface, but by investing consistently, you could earn thousands of dollars per year in passive dividend income.
While it’s daunting to continue investing during a recession, this can be a lucrative time to buy. As stock prices fall, many ETFs are more affordable than they’ve been in months. By loading up on high-quality investments now, you can set yourself up for significant long-term gains.