The S&P 500 will end the year in the green again, notching strong gains, but Q4 tells a different story.
The past three months have been marked by choppier trading, sluggish gains, and a market that’s clearly under considerable pressure following two years of double-digit surges.
That’s exactly why Oppenheimer’s new 8,100 target for 2026 lands as a genuine surprise.
Not only does it edge past the consensus, but it’s also the most bullish forecast among major Wall Street firms, calling for roughly 18% upside even as the index limps its way to next year.
The firm is banking big on earnings strength and economic resilience, betting AI and corporate profits will continue pushing the benchmark higher.
Investors have clearly been searching for some much-needed direction, and such an outlier of a target demands attention.
Oppenheimer’s massive 8,100 projection on the S&P 500 essentially resets the conversation.
It assumes the S&P 500 could tack on another 18% from here, spearheaded by solid corporate earnings rising to nearly $305 a share by 2026.
The Wall Street firm feels that beneath all the noise, the economic data point to resilience, suggesting that the current “transitional period” could set things up for a stronger leg of growth.
Further, FactSet’s late-November Q3 earnings tally showed S&P 500 revenue jumping 8.4%, the quickest pace since Q3 2022.
All eleven sectors it tracked even posted superb year-over-year gains.
Additionally, Oppenheimer analysts believe that AI spending is a legitimate long-term tailwind driving corporate profits higher.
If the fundamentals remain sturdy, the rally doesn’t need to cool and should continue widening.
That said, here’s how other big houses are lining up on the S&P 500’s year-end 2026 target:
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Bank of America:7,100, the most conservative of the calls, implying low-single-digit upside from current levels.
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JPMorgan:7,500, leaning on 13% to 15% earnings growth over the next few years.
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HSBC:7,500, forecasting that the AI trade will broaden beyond the current mega-cap leaders.
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RBC:7,750, calling for solid EPS growth along with modest valuation support from lower rates.
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Morgan Stanley:7,800, linking its call to a “rolling recovery” along with a new bull-market earnings cycle.
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Deutsche Bank:8,000, looking for 14% earnings growth and mid-teens total returns.
Perhaps the clear outlier from the list is BofA’s cautious call, built on the idea that the market will hit what it calls an “AI air pocket” in 2026.
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BofA’s argument is that though the fundamentals remain solid, the sheer momentum behind AI spending has outrun the market’s ability to absorb it effectively.
It’s essentially when a robust engine flies through relatively thin air. At the same time, hyperscalers are shelling out north of $380 billion into AI capex this year alone, Fortune reported, as the Fed keeps draining liquidity.
By the December 9 close, the S&P 500 is still inching higher in Q4, but it’s nowhere near the pace we saw in the first half of 2025.
The index has hovered near 6,840, reports 24/7 Wall St., which is slightly above late-September levels, leaving Q4 gains at just around 3%.
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The climb from about 6,642 at the end of September was positive but mostly uneven, led by multiple minor pullbacks along the way.
Year-to-date, though, the story looks a lot better, with the S&P up around 16.3% on price and roughly 17.7% with dividends, positioning it firmly in the double-digit territory for the year.
Remember, the index jumped a superb 11% in Q2 alone as AI enthusiasm and easing rate fears pushed stocks to record highs. However, once stacked against 2023 and 2024’s 25%+ returns, 2025’s showing looks strong, just not spectacular.
Related: Bank of America shares strong warning on popular AI stocks
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Dec 10, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.