Banking giant Citi has revised its outlook for the S&P 500, raising its year-end 2025 target to 6,300 from a previous estimate of 5,800.
In an investor note on June 9, Citi also set a mid-2026 target of 6,500, reinforcing its bullish stance on large-cap U.S. stocks. While the bank acknowledged the possibility of short-term market volatility, it believes any fundamental impact will remain manageable.
Citi’s most optimistic scenario is that the benchmark index will reach 7,000. However, given the current growth trajectory and the newly introduced mid-year target of 6,500, that milestone will likely arrive later in 2026.
If the 7,000 target is attained, it implies a 16% rise from the last closing price of 6,000.
This upgraded forecast is fueled by expectations of steady earnings growth and a favorable valuation environment.
That said, Citi also flagged that the market appears overvalued in the near term and may experience bouts of turbulence with a possible bearish scenario of 5,200.
Interestingly, Citi’s projection still falls just short of Wall Street’s highest estimate of 7,100, which came from Oppenheimer’s chief strategist, John Stoltzfus. However, in light of recent trade tensions, Oppenheimer trimmed its target to 5,950.
Wall Street turning bullish on S&P 500
It’s worth noting that Wall Street sentiment is slowly bullish again as trade tensions between the United States and China ease. Many analysts had downgraded their outlooks following a sharp market sell-off driven by tariff uncertainty.
Citi’s renewed optimism comes just as top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in London on Monday to reinforce a fragile truce in their ongoing trade dispute.
This follows May’s negotiations in Geneva, where both sides agreed to a 90-day suspension of most tariffs above 100%, which helped ease fears of a global recession.
This initial progress in trade talks has helped restore some market confidence. Reflecting this shift, Goldman Sachs raised its three-month S&P 500 target to 5,900 and its 12-month projection to 6,500 in early May. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research also lifted his 2025 target back to 6,500, particularly citing the rollback of Trump tariffs.
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