Invest 92L in the Atlantic has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week, and some forecasters said it could become a tropical storm or even a hurricane.
If maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, it would become Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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As of Monday, Sept. 15, a dip in the jet stream could send any developing storm north into the Atlantic, keeping it away from Texas and the U.S. However, it’s still too early to tell exactly where the system is headed.
So far, this season has produced six named storms, none of which have made U.S. landfall, though Erin brought some serious impacts to North Carolina’s Outer Banks. The next named storm is Gabrielle.
Here’s what you should know.
Spaghetti models for Invest 92L. See expected path
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Are there any storms in the Atlantic right now?
As of Monday morning, Sept. 15, there are no named storms in the Atlantic. However, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring one disturbance.
Disturbance 1:
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Location: Central tropical Atlantic
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Movement: West to west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph
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Formation chance in 48 hours: Medium, 50%
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Formation chance in 7 days: High, 90%
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If maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days.
A tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.
‘Very likely to organize into Tropical Storm Gabrielle’
“This disturbance — now designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center (also called AL92) — is very likely to organize into Tropical Storm Gabrielle sometime during the middle or latter part of this work week, and it will likely continue to intensify into a hurricane,” according to Fox Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver via email Sept. 15.
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“Forecast models are pretty convinced that this storm will make a turn to the north long before the Caribbean Islands, but some impacts can’t be totally ruled out at this point. Forecasts for storms that haven’t developed yet (like this one) are subject to a little more uncertainty so it’s smart to watch. Otherwise, folks in Bermuda most certainly need to keep an eye on this over the next week,” Oliver said.
“This wave could become the next tropical depression or even the next named tropical storm in the Atlantic,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
There was agreement between AccuWeather and Fox Weather on environmental conditions probably keeping the system off the U.S.
“If this wave develops into a storm, the steering winds would likely allow the storm to track mainly north of the Caribbean and away from the U.S.,” DaSilva said.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Other tropical waves being monitored by National Hurricane Center:
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The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W south of 20N. It is moving westward at around 17 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 17N between 65W and 68W.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 01N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 11 to 17 mph. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 45W and 50W.
Track all storms in the Atlantic
Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Invest 92L spaghetti models. Will it become hurricane, tropical storm?