U.S. stock futures edged lower early Monday morning, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 falling roughly 0.3% as investors braced for the first full trading day since the July 4 holiday. After a week that ended with record highs, the mood has shifted as markets react to renewed trade tensions.
President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the White House will let the 90-day pause on tariffs expire, setting August 1 as the date for reinstating steep “reciprocal” trade duties on dozens of countries unless new deals are struck.
As of Monday morning, only Vietnam and the United Kingdom have finalized trade agreements with the U.S.
Trump confirms tariff timeline: “August 1 is the date”
During remarks on Sunday, Trump reiterated that countries that haven’t reached trade agreements will face tariffs of up to 50% on goods—matching the original “Liberation Day” rates announced in April.
“The president is setting the rates and the deals right now,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that countries failing to finalize terms should expect duties to “boomerang back” to April 2 levels.
While the official 90-day window closes July 9, the White House appears to be giving international partners a few extra weeks to make deals—but markets are treating the August 1 date as the one to watch.
Wall Street reaction: cautious after record week
The timing of Trump’s announcement comes just days after a banner week for Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 1.7%, hitting its seventh record close of the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3% to finish at 44,828—its highest level since February. The Nasdaq also posted fresh highs.
Markets had climbed last week on strong economic data, including a surprise beat in the June jobs report, and optimism surrounding Trump’s tax-and-spending package, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
That legislation lifted the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, extended popular tax breaks, and eliminated income taxes on tips and overtime pay—policies viewed as stimulative heading into the second half of the year.
But now, trade risk re-emerges
Monday’s pre-market declines underscore growing investor concern that tariffs could derail momentum, especially with few major economic reports due in the days ahead.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the “Extreme Greed” zone late last week, with a reading of 78.5, but that could shift quickly if trade negotiations falter or key partners like the European Union, India, and Japan fail to reach agreements.
Oil prices also slipped Monday morning, with U.S. crude down 1.72% to $65.85 per barrel, following OPEC+’s announcement of a larger-than-expected production increase for August.
Looking ahead: what traders are watching
- Will more countries sign deals before August 1? The administration has hinted that many are “close,” but details remain sparse.
- How will earnings season reflect trade uncertainty? Big names like Delta and Taiwan Semiconductor will report soon.
- Could Congress or the courts intervene? Some legal experts question whether Trump can reimpose tariffs unilaterally without revising his April 9 executive order.
Despite the concerns, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Capital Economics said in a note Monday that it still expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,000 by the end of 2026, though it held its end-2025 target at 6,250 citing tariff risks.
For now, all eyes are on trade headlines—and how long the rally can hold under pressure.