Stock Market Today (LIVE): Tesla's AI Mimics Microsoft; MercadoLibre Expands In Argentina

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Closing Bell

4:05 pm — ORCL +9.2% today

The Dow closed down nearly 300 points Wednesday as intensifying naval conflict in the Strait of Hormuz pushed West Texas Intermediate crude up 4% to $87. Markets largely shrugged off a historic 400-million-barrel reserve release from the International Energy Agency, focusing instead on the disruption of refined products like jet fuel. While the Nasdaq Composite stayed flat thanks to a 9% surge from Oracle (ORCL +9.32%) , analysts at Barclays warn that a prolonged oil spike creates significant downside risk to corporate earnings. Investors now face a “pain threshold” as geopolitical volatility offsets steady February inflation data.

Microsoft Teases “Project Helix” Xbox

4:00 pm — MSFT -0.2%

Microsoft (MSFT 0.25%) confirmed it will ship alpha prototypes of its next-generation console, codenamed “Project Helix,” to developers in 2027. This hardware continues the company’s long-term partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +0.84%) , utilizing a custom chip designed for an “order of magnitude” jump in ray tracing and AI-driven graphics. Under new gaming CEO Asha Sharma, Microsoft is attempting to reverse a steep decline in hardware sales — which fell 32% last quarter — by positioning Project Helix as a high-performance hybrid capable of running both console and PC games. While the company has denied a strict 30% profit margin mandate, the pivot toward high-margin services and a unified Windows-Xbox ecosystem remains central to its turnaround strategy.

• AMD’s Silicon Moat: The partnership secures AMD’s role as the dominant hardware provider for the high-end console market, extending its influence into the next decade of gaming architecture.
• Closing the “Sony Gap”: By integrating AI intelligence directly into the compute pipeline, Microsoft aims to leapfrog the PS5’s current performance and recapture the core gamer audience it has lost to Sony and Nintendo.

Rivian Spinout Mind Robotics Hits $2B Value

3:10 pm — RIVN -1.0%

 Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.73%) spinout Mind Robotics has secured $500 million in a massive Series A round, valuing the industrial startup at $2 billion. Co-led by Accel and Andreessen Horowitz, the deal positions the firm to tackle global labor shortages through foundation-model-powered automation. While rivals focus on humanoid designs, CEO RJ Scaringe is prioritizing traditional factory forms that offer immediate manufacturing utility. For Rivian investors, the partnership remains a strategic win: the EV maker retains a major stake and provides the real-world data and factory environments necessary to train Mind’s “physical reasoning” models at scale.

• Betting on Brains Over Bodies: By favoring task-specific dexterity over humanoid “cool factor,” Mind Robotics aims to bypass the commercialization hurdles currently stalling more anthropomorphic competitors.
• The “Data-to-Factory” Flywheel: Rivian serves as both the testing ground and the primary data source, creating a unique synergy where EV production improvements directly accelerate the spinout’s software development
  
  Rivian Automotive

  Today’s Change

  (0.73%) $0.12

  Current Price

  $16.66

  Key Data Points

  Market Cap

  $21B

  Day’s Range

  $16.14 – $16.84

  52wk Range

  $10.36 – $22.69

  Volume

  837K

  Avg Vol

  34M

  Gross Margin

  -276.59%

Can Argentina Drive MELI to New Highs?

3:00 pm — MELI flat

MercadoLibre (MELI +1.38%) is doubling down on its home turf with a planned $3.4 billion investment in Argentina this year, a 30% jump over 2025 levels. CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn announced the capital injection will focus on expanding its logistics footprint, launching new distribution centers, and scaling the Mercado Pago fintech ecosystem. As one of its top three regional markets alongside Brazil and Mexico, Argentina remains a cornerstone of the company’s growth strategy. To support this physical and digital expansion, the Latin American e-commerce giant plans to add 2,000 new jobs by 2026, bolstering a local workforce that already exceeds 16,000 employees.

• Fintech’s Growing Dominance: A significant portion of the outlay targets Mercado Pago, aiming to solidify its lead as the region’s primary digital wallet and credit provider.
• Logistics Arms Race: The investment in distribution centers ensures MELI can maintain its competitive shipping speeds as it fends off global rivals eyeing the South American consumer.

Cintas Finally Nabs UniFirst (If Allowed)

2:10 pm — CTAS +1.6%

Looks like the third time (or maybe the fourth?) is a charm for Cintas (CTAS +1.03%) .

The $80 billion uniform rental giant is finally getting its desired acquisition of UniFirst (UNF +6.51%) that it’s been targeting for the past few years. Cintas is paying $155 in cash plus .7720 in stock which adds up to around $310 per share for UniFirst or around $5.5 billion.

Cintas has long wanted to add UniFirst and its 300,000 clients into its own uniform rental network. The boards have gone back and forth over the years with Cintas offering $275 per share in cash but UniFirst holding out for more.

Now it’s got it (with a little nudge from some activist investors).

Italian Sea Group Hit by Fraud Allegations

2:15 pm — TISG -2.6%

Luxury yacht maker The Italian Sea Group (TISG +0.00%) has filed a criminal complaint against former senior executives for allegedly creating a system to bypass budget controls and conceal financial realities, leading to significant extra-budget costs. The company’s CEO/Founder’s trust has agreed to provide a no-interest loan to TISG to cover these overruns. This follows a forensic investigation by KPMG. The news highlights a significant governance crisis, raising concerns about internal controls and potential financial irregularities.

To make matters worse, TISG is suing the operators of late British businessman Marc Lynch’s Pieri Navi yacht, which had capsized off the coast of Sicily in a “freak weather event.” TISG alleges the staff had failed to follow basic safety instructions, and that reputational damage had resulted in no new orders for these luxury yachts since the accident. There is a lot going on with the Italian Sea Group that casts significant doubt on the governance and leadership of this business. With the dividend currently yielding almost 12%, I would not be surprised to see it cut in the not-too-distant future.

Tesla’s New AI Agent to Mimic Microsoft?

1:15 pm — TSLA +1.9%, MSFT -0.5%

Elon Musk has unveiled “Macrohard,” a joint venture between Tesla (TSLA +2.08%) and his AI firm xAI. The project integrates xAI’s Grok model with Tesla’s AI4 chip to create an “agentic” system capable of emulating entire software companies. By processing real-time screen data and user inputs, Macrohard aims to automate complex digital workflows, directly challenging the dominance of Microsoft (MSFT 0.25%) . This software-centric pivot follows Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI and the start-up’s recent merger with SpaceX, signaling Musk’s intent to leverage orbital data centers and in-house silicon to aggressivey undercut traditional SaaS business models.

• The Silicon Synergy: By pairing Tesla’s edge-computing chips with xAI’s massive Nvidia-based server clusters, Musk claims the system can deliver enterprise-grade automation at a fraction of current market costs.
• A Multi-Trillion-Dollar Orbit: The project’s backend is bolstered by SpaceX’s recent $1 trillion valuation, utilizing Starlink’s satellite network to bypass terrestrial infrastructure limits for global AI deployment.
  
  Today’s Change

  (2.08%) $8.29

  Current Price

  $407.53

  Key Data Points

  Market Cap

  $1.5T

  Day’s Range

  $402.11 – $416.35

  52wk Range

  $214.25 – $498.83

  Volume

  4M

  Avg Vol

  66M

  Gross Margin

  18.03%

Today’s Lunchtime News

1:10 pm — SNPS -0.6%

 Synopsys (SNPS +0.10%) unveiled new software tools to help engineers manage the growing complexity of designing AI chips, the first major product release since its $35 billion acquisition of engineering software firm Ansys closed.

• Chiplet problem: Modern flagship chips from Nvidia (NVDA +0.64%) and AMD (AMD +0.84%) are no longer single pieces of silicon but stacked collections of smaller chiplets, raising mechanical engineering challenges like heat warping that can destroy chips costing tens of thousands of dollars.
• Integrated approach: CEO Sassine Ghazi said the new tools embed mechanical and thermal analysis directly into the chip design workflow, replacing a siloed process that drives up cost and limits performance. Nvidia invested $2 billion in Synopsys last year.
• Analyst chatter: In a February note, Fool analyst Yasser El-Shimy wrote that in an AI world driving ever-more-complex chip designs, Synopsys’ tools are essential. “The best is yet to come,” he wrote.

Goldman Upgrades Lasertec, Shares Jump 19%

12:20 pm — LSRCY +3.6%

Lasertec Corp (LSRCY +3.01%) shares surged on Monday after Goldman Sachs analyst Shuhei Nakamura upgraded the Japanese stock to “Buy” from “Neutral.” The upgrade reflects a positive outlook on the company’s growth prospects within the semiconductor equipment market, where demand for advanced inspection and measurement tools continues to accelerate alongside the AI-driven chip cycle. Lasertec has a monopoly of tools required to inspect ASML-produced nano-chips. This upgrade caused the shares to jump 19.24% higher on Tuesday to JPY 36,200.00. Shares are up YTD by 22% and 1 year by nearly 140%. Lasetec, in my opinion, is a high-quality company with proven technology and robust financials growing into a secular growth market.

CarMax CEO Swap Signals Activist Pressure

11:10 am — KMX +0.8%

Keith Barr is in as CarMax‘s (KMX +1.09%) new President and CEO. At first glance he might seem an odd choice. His expertise is in hospitality, not autos. However, as CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG +1.60%), he spearheaded a digital transformation. So he knows consumer loyalty, omnichannel integration and how to modernize technology.

Starboard is appointing two members to the board and is urging them to cut expenses and improve their digital offerings and be more flexible on pricing. Digital transformations require investment of both time and money. Mr. Barr will be very busy indeed.

Oracle Hits $90B Sales Target

11:20 am — ORCL +10.2%

Oracle (ORCL +9.32%) shares soared 14% Wednesday after the enterprise giant beat third-quarter expectations and raised its 2027 revenue guidance to a staggering $90 billion. While the stock has struggled recently amid massive capital expenditure concerns, a $1.79 EPS outperformed the $1.70 consensus, fueled by nearly $5 billion in cloud infrastructure sales. Despite rumors of a rift with OpenAI, management reaffirmed its commitment to the 4.5GW “Stargate” data center project, proving that its aggressive $50 billion annual spend is starting to translate into high-margin growth.

• Financing the Cloud Fortress: Reports of impending “thousands” of layoffs suggest a pivot to lean operations as Oracle funnels every available dollar into the AI hardware arms race.
• Stargate Stability: Management’s vocal denial of reports that it lost a key Texas site to Meta Platforms (META +0.14%) signals that its multi-year partnership with the industry’s biggest AI labs remains intact.

Can Nebius Power the Agentic Era?

10:15 am — NVDA +1.3%, NBIS +15.8%, CRWV +8.1%

Nvidia (NVDA +0.64%) is deepening its grip on the AI ecosystem with a $2 billion investment in Amsterdam-based “neocloud” provider Nebius (NBIS +16.08%). This partnership aims to deploy 5 gigawatts of data center capacity — enough to power 4 million homes — by 2030. While Nebius shares jumped over 16% on the news, the deal highlights Nvidia’s aggressive strategy of funding its own customers to secure long-term demand for its chips. By backing specialized firms like Nebius and CoreWeave (CRWV +9.44%), Nvidia is bypassing traditional cloud giants to build a tailor-made infrastructure for the next wave of autonomous AI agents.

• The “Circular” Capital Conundrum: Investors are closely watching these high-profile injections, as Nvidia effectively finances the very start-ups that buy its high-margin GPUs.
• Scaling Beyond Hyperscalers: Nebius is pivotally expanding capital expenditure to $2.1 billion to meet demand from tech firms that find traditional cloud providers too broad for specific AI workloads.

Why United Natural Foods Is Losing Sales to Win

10:10 am — ORCL +12.4%

United Natural Foods‘ (UNFI +7.70%) second-quarter results appeared ugly on the surface. Net sales decreased 2.6% to $7.9 billion, and the specialty grocery distributor lowered its full-year top-line guidance. But investors willing to look under the hood should come away feeling awfully good about United Natural’s prospects.

Here’s the key: United Natural is shedding those sales on purpose. The company is intentionally sacrificing lower-margin conventional grocery sales to focus on natural, organic, and specialty products, which carry better margins and stronger growth potential.

Inflation Holds Steady at 2.4%

9:45 am

February’s Consumer Price Index arrived at a 2.4% annual rate, matching January’s reading and landing just under the 2.5% consensus. While core inflation remained steady at 2.5%, a 0.3% monthly acceleration suggests price pressures aren’t fully extinguished. However, this “calm” data precedes the full impact of the recent Middle East oil spike, leaving the Federal Reserve in a high-stakes “wait-and-see” mode ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.

Opening Bell

9:35 am — ORCL +12.4%

The Dow slipped Wednesday as West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 4% to $87. Investors are balancing geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz against a neutral February Consumer Price Index, which rose 2.4% year-over-year. While energy volatility persists, Oracle (ORCL +9.32%) provided a major tech lift, jumping more than 12% after an earnings beat and an optimistic 2027 revenue forecast. Relief may be on the horizon as the International Energy Agency prepares a historic emergency reserve release, which analysts suggest could shave $7 off per-barrel prices and offset nearly two weeks of export disruptions.

Today’s Take: 1 Key Move to Navigate Market Chaos?

8:15 am

In light of recent market swings, we asked Fool analysts from Team Hidden Gems and Team Rule Breakers to share one thing an investor can do during macro volatile times. TMF chief investment officer Andy Cross added his thoughts in the comments section, too:

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — AVAV -9.04% in pre-market trading

AeroVironment (AVAV 6.25%) declined 10% on the back of after-hours third-quarter results, despite the Rule Breakers recommendation posting a 143% revenue jump to $408 million year over year (YoY). The problem? That missed the $484 million Wall Street had been expecting. Earnings of $0.64 per share fell short of the anticipated $0.72 too, though well up on the previous year’s Q3 figure of $0.30. The revenue rise was driven partly by the company’s BlueHalo acquisition.

• Full-year revenue guidance of $1.85-1.95 billion: Following the pause of a key U.S. Space Force contract, management now sees revenue in fiscal 2026 falling short of its previous $1.95-2.0 billion expectations. The pause meant a $151 million goodwill impairment.
• “Despite the challenges we faced this quarter, our core business remains strong”: CEO Wahid Nawabi stressed strong demand for the company’s Autonomous Systems, though government contracts present a major unknown in a competitive market.

Sidewalk Bots Take on White Castle Delivery

7:25 am — SERV +13.55%, UBER unchanged in pre-market trading

Uber Technologies (UBER +3.50%) and Serve Robotics (SERV +10.13%) are scaling their sidewalk delivery partnership through a new pact with fast-food pioneer White Castle. Serve’s third-generation autonomous bots are now deployed to ferry temperature-sensitive “Crave Cases” to customers via the Uber Eats platform. Already operational in major hubs like Los Angeles, Miami, and Chicago, this expansion signals a shift toward high-utilization robotic fleets for short-distance logistics. While White Castle remains private, the deal provides a high-visibility proof of concept for Serve’s hardware as it seeks to lower the “last-mile” delivery costs that have traditionally squeezed margins for gig-economy giants.

• Temperature-Tuned Tech: Serve’s latest hardware specifically targets food quality retention, a direct challenge to human couriers who often juggle multiple stacked orders.
• Scaling the Sidewalk: The rapid rollout across seven major U.S. markets suggests that regulatory hurdles for sidewalk robots are fading in favor of automated, sustainable urban delivery.

ICYMI: Tuesday’s Scoreboard

6:45 am — TTEK unchanged in pre-market trading

Tetra Tech (TTEK +0.71%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Utilize Coalition Disrupts Utility Monopolies

6:00 am — GOOG -0.37%, TSLA -0.16% in pre-market trading

Big Tech and industrial giants are teaming up to unlock the electrical grid’s hidden capacity. A new coalition called Utilize–led by heavyweights Alphabet (GOOG +0.48%), Tesla (TSLA +2.08%), and Carrier Global (CARR +0.51%)–claims the current system is inefficiently designed only for peak demand. By advocating for “virtual power plants” and advanced battery storage, these companies aim to modernize infrastructure that currently favors aging fossil fuel plants. For the “buy-side” members like Alphabet, this ensures the massive energy flow required for AI data centers, while “sell-side” members like Tesla and Carrier stand to profit from the hardware required to upgrade every American home and warehouse.

• Monetizing the Meter: Tesla and Carrier aren’t just selling appliances; they are positioning their hardware as essential grid-stabilization tools that can be aggregated for profit.
• Legislative Lever: The group is already successfully nudging state regulators to force utilities to disclose real-time usage data, a move that favors high-tech disruptors over traditional power monopolies.

AAOI Jumps Tuesday on Big AI Transceiver Order

5:30 am — AAOI -0.62% in pre-market trading

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI +5.40%) surged yesterday after announcing a $200M+ order for 1.6T AI data center transceivers from a major hyperscale customer. The stock hit a new multi-year high near $115 as analysts raised price targets.

• Major volume order secured: Applied Optoelectronics landed its first major volume order for 1.6T data center transceivers worth over $200 million from a long-term hyperscale customer.
• Capacity expansion underway: Management highlighted aggressive capacity expansions in Taiwan and Sugar Land, Texas, targeting combined 800G/1.6T output above 500,000 units monthly by year-end.

Before the Opening Bell

5:15 am

Stock futures remained subdued Wednesday morning as investors prepared for the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists are forecasting headline inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% to 2.5% annually. While energy prices have surged since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, analysts note today’s report largely reflects data collected before the recent oil spike. Consequently, any “hot” reading today could be seen as even more concerning, given that the impact of $100+ oil has yet to fully filter through to official government statistics.

• The Labor Conundrum: Friday’s disappointing jobs report–showing a gain of just 92,000 payrolls against expectations of 130,000–has complicated the Federal Reserve’s path. If today’s CPI is higher than expected, the Fed may be trapped between rising prices and a cooling economy.
• Treasury Yields: Ahead of the data, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady as markets price in a 95% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18 meeting.