The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index have been stuck in a sideways range over the last couple of weeks. The price action over the last two weeks leaves the outlook slightly mixed and cautious. For now, it is not very clear whether the recent movement is just a consolidation within the broad upmove or a top formation. We will have to wait and watch the market closely.
On the currency front, the US dollar has been gaining strength over the last two weeks. The dollar index (99.37) has risen about a per cent in the last couple of weeks. On the charts, the bias is looking positive. There are good chances to see a fresh bullish breakout in the coming months.
Dow Jones (49,359.33)
The Dow Jones is stuck between 48,790 and 49,635. A break above 49,635 is needed for the index to resume the upmove. If it does, then a rise to 50,000-50,200 can be seen in the short-term.
On the other hand, if the index declines below 48,790, then a fall to 48,000 or even 47,500 can be seen. That will increase the danger of a possible top formation on the chart.
From a big picture, 51,000-51,400 is a strong resistance. So, even if the Dow goes up from here, the upside is likely to be capped in the coming months.
S&P 500 (6,940.01)
The S&P 500 seems to be struggling to breach the psychological 7,000 mark. The region between 7,000-7,100 is a strong resistance for now. Ideally, the index has to surpass 7,100 to gain momentum and rise towards 7,400.
As long as the S&P 500 index stays below 7,100, it will remain vulnerable to break the support at 6,900. Such a break can drag the index down to 6,800-6,780 in the coming weeks.
For now, 6,900-7,000 will continue to be the near-term trading range.
Nasdaq Composite (23,515.39)
Barring the fall to 22,692 in mid-December last year, the NASDAQ Composite index has been range bound between 23,100 and 23,815.
A break above 23,815 and a subsequent rise past 24,000 is needed to regain the bullish momentum. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 26,000-26,500 in the coming weeks.
Support is around 22,900. A break below it will be bearish. Such a break can drag the NASDAQ Composite index down to 22,000 and even 21,500 going forward. It is a wait and watch situation for now.
Dollar Index (99.37)
The dollar index has been moving up very well since the beginning of this New Year. It has good support in the 98.70-98.50 region. Resistances are at 99.60 and 100.
A decisive break above 100 will be very bullish. Such a break can take the dollar index up to 101 initially. Such a rise will also confirm an inverted head and shoulder pattern on the chart. This bullish pattern will then keep the door open for the dollar index to target 103-104 on the upside eventually.
On the other hand, if the dollar index fails to breach 100, it can fall back to 98.50-98 again.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.23 per cent) has just broken its 4.1-4.2 per cent sideways range. It is important to see if it is getting a good follow-through rise from here. So, if this breakout sustains, then the 10Yr Treasury yield can rise to 4.3-4.35 per cent in the short term.
The region around 4.35 per cent is a strong resistance. The price action around this resistance will need a very close watch. Failure to breach 4.35 per cent can drag the yield down to 4.2 per cent again.
But if the yield manages to breach 4.35 per cent, then that will be very bullish. Such a break can take the 10Yr Yield up to 4.6 per cent in the coming months.
Published on January 17, 2026