Keefe Bruyette trimmed price targets on two bitcoin-mining-turned-HPC infrastructure companies Wednesday, citing higher spending, reduced hash prices, and the imminent exit from bitcoin mining for both firms. Despite the cuts, the firm kept Outperform ratings on both Cipher Digital (NASDAQ:CIFR) and TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF), arguing that the market is being too conservative on the value of their existing HPC lease portfolios and 2026 leasing prospects.
| Ticker | Company Name | Firm | Old → New Rating | New Price Target | One-Line Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Cipher Digital | Keefe Bruyette | Outperform (maintained) | $20 (from $22) | Rating intact; target trimmed on lower hash price and higher spend, but analyst sees lease value underappreciated |
| WULF | TeraWulf | Keefe Bruyette | Outperform (maintained) | $23 (from $24) | 23% pullback from 52-week high called an “appealing buying opportunity” by analyst |
The Analyst’s Case
For Cipher Digital, Keefe Bruyette reduced its 2026 and 2027 revenue and EBITDA estimates, pointing to three drivers: reduced hash price, the company’s anticipated exit from bitcoin mining in 2027, and higher spending. The firm lowered its price target to $20 from $22 but maintained its Outperform rating. The core bull case rests on the analyst’s view that the market is overly discounting Cipher’s existing leases or being too conservative on its 2026 leasing activity.
For TeraWulf, Keefe Bruyette cut its price target to $23 from $24, trimming EBITDA estimates to reflect higher spending and equity-method accounting for the Abernathy joint venture. The firm also noted it sees TeraWulf exiting mining by year-end. Like Cipher, the rating stayed at Outperform, with the analyst framing the 23% share pullback from the 52-week high on February 25 as an “appealing buying opportunity” and arguing that investors are over-discounting current lease value or adopting an overly conservative view of the company’s 2026 lease signings.
Company Snapshot & Recent Performance
Cipher Digital rebranded from Cipher Mining in Q4 2025 as it executes a full pivot to HPC data center development. The company’s two flagship projects carry substantial contracted revenue: a 15-year, 300 MW lease with AWS worth approximately $5.5 billion at its Black Pearl site, and a 10-year, 300 MW lease with Fluidstack and Google at Barber Lake worth approximately $3.8 billion, for total contracted HPC revenue of approximately $9.3 billion. Both data centers are targeting October 2026 energization. The stock is trading at $13.96, down 5.42% year-to-date, though still up 353% over the past year.
TeraWulf has built a larger contracted HPC platform. The company reported 522 critical IT MW of contracted HPC capacity with approximately $12.8 billion in long-term contracted revenue and approximately $815 million in average annualized NOI. Key tenants include Fluidstack and Google, with Google providing a credit enhancement on TeraWulf’s $3.2 billion Senior Secured Notes. TeraWulf shares sit at $14.35, up 24.89% year-to-date and 367% over the past year.Both companies reported Q4 2025 earnings misses. Cipher’s Q4 revenue came in at $59.71 million, missing the $85.46 million consensus estimate by 30%, while its GAAP net loss of $734.2 million was heavily influenced by a $410.27 million swing in warrant liability fair value and $96.06 million in losses on miners held for sale. TeraWulf’s Q4 revenue of $35.80 million missed the $42.96 million estimate by roughly 17%, driven by a sharp sequential decline in digital asset mining revenue from $43.40 million to $26.10 million as bitcoin prices and hash rates worked against miners. TeraWulf shares fell approximately 15% following the results.
Why the Move Matters Now
Bitcoin has declined 20.12% year-to-date to around $69,927, applying direct pressure on hash prices and making the mining-exit timelines for both companies strategically rational rather than merely aspirational. Keefe Bruyette’s estimate cuts reflect that transition friction, not a change in the longer-term HPC thesis.
Keefe Bruyette maintained Outperform ratings on both stocks. Both price targets hinge on HPC lease execution, particularly the ability to energize contracted data center capacity on schedule and continue signing new leases in 2026.The capital structures of both companies deserve attention. Cipher’s total liabilities expanded to $3.46 billion from $173 million year-over-year, funded largely by $3.73 billion in high-yield bond offerings to finance HPC construction. TeraWulf carries a significant net debt position of approximately $2.0 billion, though it holds $3.27 billion in cash after raising $4.94 billion in financing in 2025. The leverage is intentional and tied directly to construction timelines, making execution the central variable for both stocks.
What Analysts Are Watching
Keefe Bruyette’s maintained Outperform ratings signal that the thesis for both companies remains intact despite near-term earnings softness and higher cost structures. The analyst cuts are calibration adjustments, not conviction changes. The revised targets reflect meaningful upside potential if HPC buildouts proceed on schedule and 2026 leasing activity meets expectations.
That said, both stocks carry material risks. Construction execution, tenant concentration, high leverage, and continued bitcoin price weakness are all live variables. Cipher’s CEO Tyler Page framed 2026 as “a year of execution” for the company, and that framing applies equally to TeraWulf. The size of the contracted revenue backlog and the distance between current operations and the cash flows those contracts are expected to generate remain key variables analysts are monitoring.